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3 | Changing the future of climate impacts on freshwaters in Scotland | ||
4 | This document has been produced by the SFG climate action team with the help of the SFG membership. It aims to support decision making by providing quick access to the existing evidence-base for some of the key challenges facing freshwaters in Scotland from climate change. This includes current evidence on climate change impacts and solutions in the Scottish context. The facts are catagorised to help you find relevant information. As the evidence base grows more catagories will be added. The factsheet will be updated regularly so please check you have the most recent version. And coninue to add suggested sources to the google form that we are using as our portal for collating factsheet evidience: | ||
5 | Link to portal http://bit.ly/sfgclimateform | ||
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8 | FACT | SUPPORTING INFORMATION | SOURCE |
9 | Climate change driven low flows and the impacts of droughts. | ||
10 | The frequency of severe drought years in Scotland is expected to double with significant impacts for ecological communities. | (1) Climate change will cause warmer, drier summers, which will lead to more frequent periods of water scarcity. (2) A 1 in 40 drought is projected to become a 1 in 20 drought by 2050. Ecological communities sensitive to low flows are expected to be vulnerable to these projected impacts. (3) Work is ongoing to develop biological indices to understand relationship between river pressures and response. | Gosling R (2014) Assessing the impact of projected climate change on drought vulnerability in Scotland, Hydrology research. |
11 | Climate change related droughts will have significant implications for private water supplies in Scotland | (1) Large areas of Scotland experienced significant water scarcity between July and September 2018. (2) Northern and eastern areas were worst affected and over 500 PWS were reported to have ran dry nationwide. (3) Assistance from Scottish Water cost approximately £500,000 and placed additional pressures on Scottish Water and Local authorities, using over 3500 hours of staff time in Aberdeenshire alone. | Holdsworth, C (2018) Private Water Supplies in a changing climate:Insights from 2018 University of Glasgow, Climate Xchange. https://www.climatexchange.org.uk/ |
12 | Private water supplies are vulnerable to climate change driving significant investment in reactive measures such as storage. | (1) There are approximately 22,000 private water supplies in Scotland serving a population of nearly 197,000 people. Many of these are also micro- and other businesses which rely on these supplies for their existence: frequently providing services to a broader public as visitors and tourists particularly in remote rural areas of the country. (2) Private supplies remain vulnerable, particularly to the impending impacts of climate change, and so greater strategic support for private supply infrastructure is a pressing concern. (3) Landowners have major concerns, not only because of recent droughts, but also a general reduction in rainfall year-round, requiring investment of substantial amounts of money in building much larger storage tanks. | P. Teedon, N. Hakeem, K. Helwig, F. Henderson & M. Martinolli (2020). Private water supplies and the local economic impacts in Scotland. CRW2017_11. Scotland’s Centre of Expertise for Waters (CREW). ISBN no. 978-0-902701-76-2 |
13 | Extreme droughts are likely to become longer and more frequent in Scotland within the next twenty years with significant ecological and economic impacts. | (1) Extreme drought increases are predicted in all cells on a 12km grid across Scotland (2) Extreme droughts are likely to become longer and more frequent within the next twenty years (3) Increases are likely to be highest in the east, particularly in the Borders, Grampian, Caithness, Orkney, and Shetland. (4) key industries dependent on water supplies and worth £billions annually to the Scottish Economy, could potentially be disrupted by drought increases in the east, including whisky production, agriculture, and forestry. | Kirkpatrick Baird, F., Stubbs Partridge, J. & Spray, D. 2021. Anticipating and mitigating projected climate-driven increases in extreme drought in Scotland, 2021-2040. NatureScot Research Report No. 1228 |
14 | The impact of climate change on seasonal flows will be influenced by varying catchment characteristics along a West to East hydroclimatic gradient in the Scottish Highlands | (1) Modelling shows that although projected temperature increase of 2C is consistent across three catchments in the Scottish Highlands, (Strontian, West Highlands; Allt â Mharcaidh, Central Highlands; Girnock, East Highlands), precipitation will increase 10-15% in Strontian and will change only slightly at Allt â Mharcaidh and Girnock. (2) Strontian will have higher winter flows. (3) Allt â Mharcaidh will have less snow and snow pack, increasing winter flows and moderating Spring flows. (4) Girnock will have reduced summer flows. | Capell R, Tetzlaff D, Soulsby C (2013): Will catchment characteristics moderate the projected effects of climate change on flow regimes in the Scottish Highlands?, Hydrological Processes, Volume 27, pp 687-699 DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9626 |
15 | The impcts of climate change on water quality | ||
16 | Reliability of drinking water supplies may be affected by increased rainfall variability | Despite projections of increased rainfall with climate change in Scotland, this study found that six storage reservoirs from three regions and two intake schemes are expected to become less reliable because of (1) changes in rainfall variability, (2) evapotranspiration and (3) water demand. If projections in demand are not mediated through water efficiency or alternative sources, further investment will be necessary to maintain supply. | Afzal M, Gagnon AS, Mansell MG (2015) The impact of projected changes in climate variability on the reliability of surface water supply in Scotland, Water Science & Technology: Water Supply, Volume 15(4) |
17 | Long-term monitoring at Loch Leven shows that seasonal changes in temperature and rainfall may have positive and negative impacts on water quality | (1) Increased Daphnia densities caused by warmer water temperatures may be the cause of reduced chlorophyll a concentrations in spring and an associated improvement in water clarity in May and June. (2) Extreme weather years impact chlorophyll a, with the three wettest summers having very low chlorophyll a concentrations and the driest summers having high concentrations. | Carvalho, L., Miller, C., Spears, B.M., Gunn, I.D.M.G., Bennion, H. & May, L. (2012) Water quality of Loch Leven: responses to enrichment, restoration and climate change. Hydrobiologia 681: 35-47 doi.org/10.1007/s10750-011-0923-x |
18 | Less runoff and a much reduced snow pack in Lochnagar as a result of a warmer and drier climate are projected to lead to increased surface water NO3- concentrations. | (1) Mountains are vulnerable environments and their ecosystems are often in a delicate balance (2) Modelling results presented indicate that [NO3- ] in Lochnagar will remain below present levels for the foreseeable future but that they will increase as a result of warmer temperatures even if deposition levels remain constant. | M. N. Futter ; R. C. Helliwell ; M. Hutchins ; J. Aherne, (2009) Modelling the effects of changing climate and nitrogen deposition on nitrate dynamics in a Scottish mountain catchment. Hydrology Research 40 (2-3): 153-166. doi.org/10.2166/nh.2009.073 |
19 | Modelled climate related changes to water temperature and flow shows a likely impact on phytoplankton biodiversity | (1) The phytoplankton community of Loch Leven in 2005 was modelled and subjected to a combination of different flushing rates and water temperatures. (2) Some species responded positively to increased temperature (e.g. Aulacoseira), some negatively (e.g. Asterionella), whilst others were negatively affected by increased flow (e.g. Aphanocapsa) and others enhanced (e.g. Stephanodiscus) | Elliott, J.A. & Defew, L. (2012) Modelling the response of phytoplankton in a shallow lake (Loch Leven, UK) to changes in lake retention time and water temperature. Hydrobiologia 681: 105-116 doi.org/10.1007/s10750-011-0930-y |
20 | The impacts of climate change on biodiversity | ||
21 | Increasing temperatures and changing weather patterns have resulted in the local extinction of a cold water stenothermic freshwater flatworm | Two sympatric planarians (Crenobia alpina and Phagocata vitta) in upland Welsh streams over 25 y during which C. alpina disappeared. Loss of C. alpina in the Llyn Brianne experimental catchments coincided with the largest-ever positive amplification of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO, 1989-1994), accompanied by increased stream temperature, increased winter discharge, 2 summer droughts, and markedly reduced prey abundance. Likely interspecific competition and prolonged climatic event acted in concert to favor P. vitta over C. alpina. Since local loss, summer temperatures have generally exceeded the favorable range for C. alpina, coupled with weak dispersal ability -> continued absence. | Durance & Ormerod (2010) Evidence for the role of climate in the local extinction of a cool-water triclad, Freshwater Science - doi: 10.1899/09-159.1 |
22 | Several changes in species composition in the recent fossil record indicate that loch diatom species assemblages shifts may be attributed to climatic controls | Bennion et al. (2012) showed that for Loch Leven, on a decadal-centennial scale, the eutrophication signal in the sediment record outweighs any evidence of climate as a control on the diatom community. However, at an inter-annual scale, while the diatom data exhibit high variability, there are several changes in species composition in the recent fossil record that may be attributed to climatic controls. For example the presence of Aulacoseira granulata and Aulacoseira granulata var. angustissma seems to show seasonality and coincide with warmer temperatures. | Bennion, H., Carvalho, L., Sayer, C., Simpson, G. L., and Wischnewski, J. (2012). Identifying from recent sediment records the effects of nutrients and climate on diatom dynamics in Loch Leven. Freshwater Biology 57, pp2015-2029. - doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2427.2011.02651.x |
23 | Montane mayfly distributions | (1) The Upland summer mayfly (Ameletus inopinatus) is Scotland’s only montane mayfly species. (2) It is restricted to cold water streams and has been lost from many low altitude sites. | Kitchen et al (2011) Is the Upland summer mayfly (Ameletus inopinatus Eaton 1887) in hot water? Unpublished report for the Freshwater Biological Association. |
24 | European range of the Upland summer mayfly | (1) Modelling shows that by 2080 the European range of the Upland summer mayfly (Ameletus inopinatus) will contract significantly. (2) Remaining populations will be restricted to the Alps, Scandinavia and parts of the Scottish Highlands such as the Cairngorms. | Taubmann et al. (2010) Modelling range shifts and assessing genetic diversity distribution of the montane aquatic mayfly Ameletus inopinatus in Europe under climate change scenarios. Conservation Genetics, 12, pp. 503-515. |
25 | The decline of freshwater pearl mussel has been well documented and impacts related to climate change have been identified as a potential threat to this species | Evidence suggest that many of the remaining freshwater pearl mussel populations in Scotland are seriously threatened by climate change. The effects may be direct from increases in water temperature, altered flow regimes, salt water intrusion from sea level rise, or decline in the populations of salmon and trout which act as pearl mussel hosts or indirect by a reduction in suitable habitat for pearl mussels and salmonids. | Peter Cosgrove Lee Hastie Jon Watt Iain Sime Philip J. Boon (2012) - Chapter 10. Scotland's Freshwater Pearl Mussels: The Challenge of Climate Change IN: River Conservation and Management Ed. Boon & Raven - doi.org/10.1002/9781119961819.ch10 |
26 | Whether or not scottish populations of endangered freshwater pearl mussels survive the challenge posed by climate change will depend on the willingness to introduce mitigation measures and, more fundamentally, on the effectiveness of dealing with the causes of climate change. | Society is likely to respond to the threat of climate change in two ways: (i) by adapting and dealing with the consequences of climate change, and (ii) by attempting to prevent or reduce the severity of climate change through mitigation. The potential effects of these different elements on freshwater pearl mussels are complex and often contradictory. The opportunities for mitigation include greater attention to salmonid conservation, appropriate woodland management (including planting in catchments devoid of riparian tree cover), tighter control of river engineering activities, and a presumption in favour of soft engineering for flood defence works. | Peter Cosgrove Lee Hastie Jon Watt Iain Sime Philip J. Boon (2012) - Chapter 10. Scotland's Freshwater Pearl Mussels: The Challenge of Climate Change IN: River Conservation and Management Ed. Boon & Raven - doi.org/10.1002/9781119961819.ch10 |
27 | The Threat of Climate Change to Freshwater Pearl Mussel Populations | Changes in climate are occurring around the world and the effects on ecosystems will vary, depending on the extent and nature of these changes. In northern Europe, experts predict that annual rainfall will increase significantly, along with dramatic storm events and flooding in the next 50-100 years. Scotland is a stronghold of the endangered freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera (L.), and a number of populations may be threatened. For example, large floods have been shown to adversely affect mussels, and although these stochastic events were historically rare, they may now be occurring more often as a result of climate change. Populations may also be affected by a number of other factors, including predicted changes in temperature, sea level, habitat availability, host fish stocks and human activity. In this paper, we explain how climate change may impact M. margaritifera and discuss the general implications for the conservation management of this species. | Lee C. Hastie, Peter J. Cosgrove, Noranne Ellis, Martin J. Gaywood (2003) The Threat of Climate Change to Freshwater Pearl Mussel Populations AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 32(1), 40-46 |
28 | Temperature data during the summer of 2018 show that over two thirds of Scottish rivers experienced temperatures that cause thermal stress for salmon | (1) Temperatures recorded during the summer of 2018 show that 69% of Scottish rivers experienced temperatures that cause thermal stress for salmon on one or more days. (2) 0.01% of Scottish rivers experienced temperatures above the lethal limit for trout. No rivers experienced temperatures that would be lethal for salmon. (3) Under climate change, high temperature events such as those seen in 2018 are expected to become more common and extreme. | Jackson et al (2018) A spatio-temporal statistical model of maximum daily river temperatures to inform the management of Scotland’s Atlantic salmon rivers under climate change. Science of The Total Environment, 612, pp 1543-1558. |
29 | The impact of ocean suface waters on prey availability correlates with the growth rates of Salmon, one of Scotland's iconic species | (1) The scale circulus spacing of adult one sea-winter wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) (n1947), returning to Scotland, between 1993 and 2011 were analysed to assess variation in post smolt body length and growth rates with changes to sea surface temperatures (SST). (2) Temporal changes in growth patterns were significantly correlated with time series changes in sea surface temperatures in the Norwegian Sea and attributed to changes to prey availability driven by ocean warming. (3) Post-smolt growth patterns have altered with increasing sea surface temperatures altered since 2000 with a) decreased body length reached by ocean mid-winter, b) decreased fast growth stages, c) increased frequencies with extended periods of initial slow growth and d) clear stages of growth hiatuses or checks. | Todd et al (2020). Variation in the post-smolt growth pattern of wild one sea-winter salmon ( Salmo salar L .), and its linkage to surface warming in the eastern North Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Fish Biology, (April) 11. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfb.14552 |
30 | Climate change impacts on water temperatures | ||
31 | Increasing surface water temperatures in Loch Lomond are correlated with phytoplankton biomass and abundance | (1) Surface water temperatures in Loch Lomond have increased from 9deg in 1987 to 13-14deg in 2005. (2) Phytoplankton biomass and abundance were most strongly correlated to water temperatures rather than nutrient concentrations. | Krokowski, J. (2007). Changes in the trophic state and phytoplankton composition and abundance in Loch Lomond, Scotland, UK. Oceanological and Hydrobiological Studies, 36. - eISSN 1897-3191 |
32 | There is a trend, most pronounced in spring, of increasing water temperature in Scottish catchments | (1) River temperatures investigated for 35 catchments covering 40 % of mainland Scotland show increases in mean annual values for all of these catchments based on 30-year trends starting in 1976. (2) Warming occured mainly in spring and is least pronounced for summer. (3) Air temperature has generally increased and snow-melt has declinded in most catchments. | Pohle et al. (2020) unpublished draft |
33 | Temperature changes on the River Spey, Scotland | (1) A unique 105-year record of river temperature for the Spey in NE Scotland (1912-2016) is presented. (2) River temperature increased mostly after 1961 (0.2 K per decade). (3) Long-term trends are explained by increasing air temperature of the same magnitude. (4) The snow free period starts around 2 days earlier per decade throughout the study period and 7 days earlier per decade after 1965. (5) Less snow is accumulated in winter and snow melts earlier in spring. | Pohle et al (2019) Citizen science evidence from the past century shows that Scottish rivers are warming Science of the Total Environment 659. pp. 53–65 |
34 | Climate change impacts on lake ecosystems | ||
35 | Combining limnological and palaeolimnological data to disentangle the effects of nutrient pollution and climate change on lake ecosystems: problems and potential | Note this example study uses diatom community data from both Scottish (eg Loch Leven) and European lakes. Overall the evidence indicates that nutrient enrichment remains the dominant influence on the trophic status of the study lakes. But, although it is difficult to distentangle fully its relative importance there is also evidence that climate change may be offsetting some of the recovery expected from a reduction in nutrient loading at some sites. If this is indeed the case then algal growth may not be declining simply in line with nutrient loading, but remaining relatively high, tending to follow a deflected trajectory away from the reference and towards a new endpoint. | Battarbee, R. W., Anderson, N. J., Bennion, H., and Simpson, G. L. (2012). Combining limnological and palaeolimnological data to disentangle the effects of nutrient pollution and climate change on lake ecosystems: problems and potential. Freshwat. Biol. 57, pp209-2106 - doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2427.2012.02860.x |
36 | Recovery of UK lakes from acidification: An assessment using combined palaeoecological and contemporary diatom assemblage data | Study assesses the recovery of UK lakes from acidification using floristic composition from sediment cores. In a few cases, however, the floristic composition of recent samples is different from those that occurred during and before the acidification phase. The reasons for this are not yet clear but it is possible that nutrient enrichment from atmospheric N deposition and/or climate change is beginning to play a role in driving water quality as acidity decreases. | Battarbee, Richard, Simpson, Gavin, Shilland, Ewan, Flower, Roger, Kreiser, Annette, Yang, Hong and Clarke, Gina (2012) Recovery of UK lakes from acidification: an assessment using combined palaeoecological and contemporary diatom assemblage data. Ecological Indicators, 1-16. - doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2012.10.024 |
37 | Climate change impacts on invertebrates | ||
38 | Impacts of climate change on sedentry invertebrates | (1) Increasng severity and regularity of extreme rainfall events or dry weather/drought events detrimentally affects sedintary and filter feeding individuals. (2) Decreased baseflows during dry weather events (caused by over-abstraction or bog habitat degradation) decrease flows and increase water temperature. This can have a detrimental impact on species which require high-flow environments or species for which temperature regulates certain parts of their life cycle. (3) Increased severity and regularity of extreme rainfall events often lead to increased turbidity which not only delivers additional sediments to aquatic systems via aggravated erosion, but also affects the ability of filter feeding individuals to feed and respire effectively (such as the freshwater pearl mussel). This can lead to failure of individuals to feed properly, interrupted reproduction and increased chronic stress. | Cosgrove P, Hastie L, Watt J, Sime I, Boon PJ. (2012). Scotland's freshwater pearl mussels:the challenge of climate change. In River conservation and management, Raven PJB& PJ (ed). John Wiley & Sons; 432. - doi.org/10.1002/9781119961819.ch10 |
39 | Climate change adaptation strategies | ||
40 | Conceptual framework to inform climate change adaptation strategies for standing freshwaters | (1) Presents a conceptual framework (ESVRA) designed to inform climate change adaptation strategies for Scottish standing freshwaters at multiple spatial and temporal scales based on Exposure, Sensitivity, Vulnerability and Response. (2) Using the ESVRA framework, presents an analysis of: climate projections for Scotland; potential climate impacts on the physico-chemical, hydromorphological and ecological processes within lakes; and offers a spatial risk assessment for the conservation of Scottish lakes | Muir, Spray & Rowan (2012) Climate change and standing freshwaters: informing adaptation strategies for conservation at multiple scales. Area 44, 4, p. 411-422 |
41 | Water efficient behaviors can reduce energy use associated with water abstraction and use and therefore reduce carbon emissions | (1) Scottish Water is one of the largest single users of electricity in Scotland from collecting, treating and pumping water around the network. (2) Water use in the home uses even more energy, which produces carbon emissions. (3) By reducing household water use, water supplies can go further and carbon emissions can be reduced. | Scottish Water (2017) 'Saving Water in Scotland? Really? Making small changes today to start saving water and energy', Scottish Water Saving Water Brochure |
42 | The translocation of freshwater species has enabled five conservation refuge populations to be established in Scotland, which may protect survival of important species and preserve inter-population genetic diversity | (1) Translocation of three Scottish fish species has formed an important part of species conservation with translocation sites selected for their ecological viability and projected security from climate change impacts (2) Two populations have been established for Arctic Charr (3) Three translocation of vendace from two endangered (one now extinct) populations has resulted in successful establishment of refuge populations | Adams CE, Lyle AA, Dodd JA, Bean CW, Winfield IJ, Gowans ARD, Stephen A, Maitland PS (2014) Translocation as a conservation tool: case studies from rare freshwater fishes in Scotland, The Glasgow Naturalist, Volume 26, pp 17-24 |
43 | Climate change adaptation activities may conflict with existing environmental policies such as those aimed at improving freshwater ecosystems. | (1) Changes in rainfall and temperatures between April and September are projected to result in changing land use by farmers owing to increasing agricultural productivity in Scotland, which is associated with increased Nitrate and Phosphate river concentrations, particularly in the East of Scotland. (2) The increases in Nitrate and Phosphate and their harmful effects on river water quality may be mediated by environmental policies, such as increasing woodland coverage. (3) A systemic approach to climate change interventions may enable the anticipation of climate change adaptation and deliver more than one policy goal. | Fezzi C, Harwood AR, Lovett AA, Bateman IJ (2015) The environmental impact of climate change adaptation on land use and water quality, Nature Climate Change, Volume 5, pp 255-260. | DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2525 |
