Brexit Uncertainty and the Northern Ireland Protocol: The consequences for Northern Ireland firms and their trade within the UK's Internal Market
Lead Research Organisation:
University of Sussex
Department Name: University of Sussex Business School
Abstract
Following the decision of the UK to leave the European Union, UK firms and workers have faced a period of economic uncertainty. Even though the UK departed at the end of January 2020, uncertainty remains, and this is particularly so for businesses in Northern Ireland (NI). Our research is aimed at studying two particular aspects of Brexit uncertainty and their impact on Northern Ireland.
Firms' production and exporting decisions might have been discouraged by the absence of clear information about future trading relations within the UK, between NI and Great Britain (GB), and externally with the EU and third countries. For businesses in NI a particular and additional form of uncertainty concerned the resolution of the Irish border issue - how to ensure that NI is included in the UK custom territory while avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This almost intractable issue finally led to the inclusion of the Northern Ireland Protocol in the Withdrawal Agreement, which de facto moved the border between the EU and the UK to the Irish Sea. The uncertainty in the negotiations, the uncertainty about how the Protocol will be operationalised, means that trade relations between NI and GB will have been affected and will continue to be affected. There will be direct effects from customs checks and possibly tariffs imposed on some goods transiting from GB to NI, and indirect effects from the uncertainty.
In the first part of our research we will examine how the uncertainty about the Irish border, in terms of the potential changes to the costs of trade with Great Britain from tariff and regulatory misalignment between the EU (and therefore NI) and GB, affected trade relations for firms based in Northern Ireland with Great Britain. In turn, we will examine how these changes varied depending on underlying firm characteristics such as productivity and foreign ownership. This will be undertaken in two phases - first focusing on the impact of uncertainty following the 2016 referendum up to the Brexit date (January 2020), and second, the impact following the UK's departure from the EU. We will also explore the extent of any trade by third countries to the UK, which may be diverted via NI, in order to avoid higher UK tariffs.
In the second part of our research we will examine how Brexit uncertainty might have affected NI and UK firms through changes in the availability of workers, in particular EU nationals, in the local labour market where firms operate. The potential post-Brexit working and residence restrictions for non-UK citizens, as well as the sterling depreciation and other negative macroeconomic consequences of Brexit, might have affected the decision of EU migrants to remain in the UK, or to relocate to other EU countries in search of a more secure living and job environment. EU migrants might be particularly sensitive to Brexit uncertainty, as they are, on average, more educated, younger and located in the UK primarily for work related reasons (as opposed to family reasons).
The changing composition of the UK labour force could impact negatively on firms, as drawing workers from a wider pool provides diverse skills and can offer resilience against negative economic shocks. There may be differential effects in NI relative to GB, partly because the Withdrawal Agreement establishes a different economic relationship between the EU and NI, and between GB and NI, and also because the share of EU migrants in NI is larger than the corresponding share in GB. In this second part, therefore, we will study how Brexit uncertainty has affected firms through migration. We will begin by examining how Brexit uncertainty affected firms' ability in filling vacancies. We will then examine how Brexit has affected the composition of the labour market in which firms operate, and finally, evaluate the impact of changes in such workforce composition on firms with a primary focus on their productivity.
Firms' production and exporting decisions might have been discouraged by the absence of clear information about future trading relations within the UK, between NI and Great Britain (GB), and externally with the EU and third countries. For businesses in NI a particular and additional form of uncertainty concerned the resolution of the Irish border issue - how to ensure that NI is included in the UK custom territory while avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This almost intractable issue finally led to the inclusion of the Northern Ireland Protocol in the Withdrawal Agreement, which de facto moved the border between the EU and the UK to the Irish Sea. The uncertainty in the negotiations, the uncertainty about how the Protocol will be operationalised, means that trade relations between NI and GB will have been affected and will continue to be affected. There will be direct effects from customs checks and possibly tariffs imposed on some goods transiting from GB to NI, and indirect effects from the uncertainty.
In the first part of our research we will examine how the uncertainty about the Irish border, in terms of the potential changes to the costs of trade with Great Britain from tariff and regulatory misalignment between the EU (and therefore NI) and GB, affected trade relations for firms based in Northern Ireland with Great Britain. In turn, we will examine how these changes varied depending on underlying firm characteristics such as productivity and foreign ownership. This will be undertaken in two phases - first focusing on the impact of uncertainty following the 2016 referendum up to the Brexit date (January 2020), and second, the impact following the UK's departure from the EU. We will also explore the extent of any trade by third countries to the UK, which may be diverted via NI, in order to avoid higher UK tariffs.
In the second part of our research we will examine how Brexit uncertainty might have affected NI and UK firms through changes in the availability of workers, in particular EU nationals, in the local labour market where firms operate. The potential post-Brexit working and residence restrictions for non-UK citizens, as well as the sterling depreciation and other negative macroeconomic consequences of Brexit, might have affected the decision of EU migrants to remain in the UK, or to relocate to other EU countries in search of a more secure living and job environment. EU migrants might be particularly sensitive to Brexit uncertainty, as they are, on average, more educated, younger and located in the UK primarily for work related reasons (as opposed to family reasons).
The changing composition of the UK labour force could impact negatively on firms, as drawing workers from a wider pool provides diverse skills and can offer resilience against negative economic shocks. There may be differential effects in NI relative to GB, partly because the Withdrawal Agreement establishes a different economic relationship between the EU and NI, and between GB and NI, and also because the share of EU migrants in NI is larger than the corresponding share in GB. In this second part, therefore, we will study how Brexit uncertainty has affected firms through migration. We will begin by examining how Brexit uncertainty affected firms' ability in filling vacancies. We will then examine how Brexit has affected the composition of the labour market in which firms operate, and finally, evaluate the impact of changes in such workforce composition on firms with a primary focus on their productivity.
Publications
Gasiorek, M
(2022)
Identifying sensitive and strategic sectors
UK Trade Policy Observatory
(2021)
Written evidence to the NI Affairs Committee: Brexit and the NI Protocol
Description | We have engaged with the Department of the Economy to share preliminary (unpublished) results to help inform them in their analytical and policy work. |
First Year Of Impact | 2022 |
Impact Types | Economic,Policy & public services |
Description | Evidence to House of Lords European Affairs Committee |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
Description | Evidence to Trade and Business Commission |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
Description | Labour Party National Policy Forum |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Contribution to a national consultation/review |
Description | Private Roundtable with H of Lords International Agreements Committee |
Geographic Reach | National |
Policy Influence Type | Participation in a guidance/advisory committee |
Description | Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy |
Amount | £8,200,000 (GBP) |
Funding ID | ES/W002434/1 |
Organisation | Economic and Social Research Council |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 04/2022 |
End | 04/2027 |
Description | FUNDING FOR THE CENTRE FOR INCLUSIVE TRADE POLICY and UK TRADE POLICY OBSERVATORY |
Amount | £65,000 (GBP) |
Organisation | Department for the Economy, Northern Ireland |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2022 |
End | 03/2023 |
Description | Monitoring and Evaluation of Northern Ireland Protocol and Rules of Origin |
Amount | £9,999 (GBP) |
Funding ID | 5585/12/2021 |
Organisation | Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 01/2021 |
End | 03/2021 |
Description | Review of evidence on the impacts on businesses of introducing new barriers to trade and Government responses9999 |
Amount | £9,999 (GBP) |
Organisation | Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy |
Sector | Public |
Country | United Kingdom |
Start | 03/2021 |
End | 04/2021 |
Title | Regulatory Intensity Index |
Description | The index is designed to capture the regulatory intensity at the product level of the EU's Single Market. The index is based on an advanced analysis using natural language processing techniques of the EU single market regulations and directives and distinguishes between intensity associated with the presence of standards, conformity assessment and compliance. |
Type Of Material | Database/Collection of data |
Year Produced | 2022 |
Provided To Others? | No |
Impact | The dataset is currently being used to assess the extent to which regulatory intensity may impact on trade flow in several contexts: preference utilisation and rules of origin, the accession of Croatia to the EU, and on the trade of NI firms with the rest of the UK, as well as with third countries. |
Description | Collaboration with the Department of the Economy, NI |
Organisation | Department for the Economy, Northern Ireland |
Country | United Kingdom |
Sector | Public |
PI Contribution | Liaison with the DofE over access to more data for this award, but also further work in part arising from this award Consultations with the DoE to include them as a non-academic partner in a successful bid the UKTPO submitted for a new research centre, the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy. |
Collaborator Contribution | Support / sponsorship for access to data Participation in the UKTPO's bid for the CITP research centre. |
Impact | na |
Start Year | 2021 |
Description | Article in BBC news |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Cited in BBC report following the report undertaken by us on the modelling of the impact ofNorthern Ireland arising from the UK's exit from the EU, which was published in November |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
URL | https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-63620632 |
Description | Blog on Northern Ireland Protocol Bill |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Michael Gasiorek and I wrote a blog commenting on the possible options for the UK government to address its concerns about the working of the Northern Ireland Protocol. We also discussed possible reactions on the EU side in case of unilateral actions on the side of the UK that could be seen as a breach of an international treaty (e.g. the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement). |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Blog on Northern Ireland trade patterns |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Engagement focused website, blog or social media channel |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Ruby Acquah and I wrote a blog analysis the type of trade that flows between Great Britain (GB) and Northern Ireland (NI). We looked at the value and the composition of trade (in terms of sectors), and compared NI-GB trade with NI trade with other key destinations, such as the EU, the Republic of Ireland, and the rest of the world. We also provided insights on why border checks between NI-GB are considered particularly burdensome. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Government after Brexit Programme Meeting, September 2022 |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Michael Gasiorek (PI) and myself attended a meeting with other "Governance after Brexit" grant holders. We discussed findings and outcomes of the various projects, and benefited from comments and feedback from Brexit experts in other disciplines (sociology, geography, international relations). |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Interview with Stephen Beard from Marketplace |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | I gave an interview to Stephen Beard from Market Place for a piece that was published on the American Radio Show. The interview covered the issues surrounding the application of the Northern Ireland Protocol, and the row between the UK and the EU that resulted in the UK formally presenting the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill as a way to disapply the contested parts of the Protocol. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Meeting |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Study participants or study members |
Results and Impact | This was a meeting with other Governance after Brexit projects to share our research and provide a basis for mutual exchange of information to strengthen and deepen the research, and to ensure wider knowledge of the work being undertaken. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
Description | Meeting with Chief Economics, DofE, NI |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | Regional |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Meeting with Victor Dukelow to discuss the progress of our work and future work which may be of relevance to NI. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Meeting with Victor Dukelow, Dept for the Economy, Northern Ireland |
Form Of Engagement Activity | Participation in an activity, workshop or similar |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | I met with Viktor Dukelow to discuss our progress and preliminary findings of this research project, as well as patterns of trade between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. We talked about the impact of the post-Brexit trading arrangements, the Northern Ireland Protocol and how traders in the Republic of Ireland are adjusting to these changes. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2023 |
Description | Not just sausages: Brexit, trade and the Northern Ireland protocol |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A broadcast e.g. TV/radio/film/podcast (other than news/press) |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | This podcasts revisits a part of the world that lies at the fulcrum of post-Brexit arguments over trade and national identity. Part of the United Kingdom, but effectively within the EU single market, but still part of the UK's customs territory - you'd be forgiven for feeling a little confused about just how Northern Ireland fits into things these days. The problem is that if Northern Ireland remains part of the EU single market, then the EU wants to make sure that anything that enters that single market is compliant with its own rules - even if that stuff comes from Great Britain, which is part of the same country as Northern Ireland. So what are the next steps in the evolving saga? How did we get into this situation, and, more relevantly, how do we find solutions to the current problems? |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://soundcloud.com/uktpo-tradebites/not-just-sausages-brexit-trade-and-the-northern-ireland-prot... |
Description | Presentation at the World Economic Forum Future Trade and Investment Council |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A formal working group, expert panel or dialogue |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Professional Practitioners |
Results and Impact | I gave a presentation of preliminary findings of our research at a meeting of the World Economic Forum Future Trade and Investment Council. The audience, composed mostly of industry leaders, was interested in learning about our index of regulatory barriers to trade, and commended our efforts in constructing a new detailed measure of non-tariff barrier (NTB). |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Presentation of preliminary findings at Department for the Economy, Northern Ireland |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | Barry Reilly and I presented preliminary findings of our research. We discussed features of the Northern Ireland Protocol and our new method to construct an index of regulatory barriers to trade arising from the post-Brexit EU-UK agreements. The audience was particularly interested in any findings about the effect of Brexit on trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Radio Ulster Interview |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A press release, press conference or response to a media enquiry/interview |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Public/other audiences |
Results and Impact | Interview with Radio Ulster, following the report undertaken by us on the modelling of the impact ofNorthern Ireland arising from the UK's exit from the EU, which was published in November |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Seminar on Brexit regulations and the internal market |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | National |
Primary Audience | Other audiences |
Results and Impact | Seminar given by Prof. David Phinnemore to the UKTPO on related research focussing on the internal market in the UK. |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2022 |
Description | Webinar |
Form Of Engagement Activity | A talk or presentation |
Part Of Official Scheme? | No |
Geographic Reach | International |
Primary Audience | Policymakers/politicians |
Results and Impact | UK in a Changing Europe (UKICE), Research Insights Event designed to promote knowledge of the research and the issues being addressed to a much wider audience than other academics. This was a live streamed event, but also recorded and made available on YouTube. The event also included a Q&A session. Since the event (which was only yesterday there have been over 300 views). |
Year(s) Of Engagement Activity | 2021 |
URL | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lrHQLqinmDk&t=3s |