Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Sarcopenia in Community-Dwelling Older Adults

Objective: To establish and validate a nomogram that predicts the risk of sarcopenia for community-dwelling older residents.

Design: Retrospective study.

Setting and participants: A total of 1050 community-dwelling older adults.

Methods: Data from a survey of community-dwelling older residents (≥60 years old) in Hunan, China, from June to September 2019 were retrospectively analyzed. The survey included general demographic information, diet, and exercise habits. Sarcopenia diagnosis was according to 2019 Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia criteria. Participants were randomly divided into the development group and validation groups. Independent risk factors were screened by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Based on the independent risk factors, a nomogram model was developed to predict the risk of sarcopenia for community-dwelling older adults. Both in the development and validation sets, the discrimination, calibration, and clinical practicability of the nomogram were verified using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and decision curve analysis, respectively.

Results: Sarcopenia was identified in 263 (25.0%) participants. Age, body mass index, marital status, regular physical activity habit, uninterrupted sedentary time, and dietary diversity score were significant contributors to sarcopenia risk. A nomogram for predicting sarcopenia in community-dwelling older adults was developed using these factors. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the area under the curve was 0.827 (95% CI 0.792-0.860) and 0.755 (95% CI 0.680-0.837) in the development and validation sets, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test yielded P values of .609 and .565, respectively, for the 2 sets. The nomogram demonstrated a high net benefit in the clinical decision curve in both sets.

Conclusions and implications: This study developed and validated a risk prediction nomogram for sarcopenia among community-dwelling older adults. Sarcopenia risk was classified as low (<11%), moderate (11%-70%), and high (>70%). This nomogram provides an accurate visual tool to medical staff, caregivers, and older adults for prediction, early intervention, and graded management of sarcopenia.