Will the Stock Market Recover? Charting The Dow’s 28% Decline

It is hard to follow the stomach–turning plunge across financial markets without hearing a reference to the Dow.

Professional money managers, as well as casual investors, often look at the Dow—or the Dow Jones Industrial Average—to get a 30-thousand feet view of the markets. Referred to as simply the Dow, it is a price–weighted average of 30 blue–chip U.S. stocks that are generally the leaders in their industry.

Amid the current carnage, observing the index can help in gauging the damage the coronavirus is inflicting on portfolios, and whether the downturn is a short-turn consequence of disrupted supply chains and skittish consumer demand or a broader symptom of a bull market that has run its course.

To better understand the differing aspects of the economy and the signals they are flashing, we have grouped the 30 Dow stocks into nine broad economic sectors—health care, energy, consumer staples, communication services, information technology, consumer discretionary, financials, industrials and basic materials. Here is an overview of the U.S. stock market through the lens of the Dow.

Components of a 8,300-Point Drop

Critics of the Dow say that it inaccurately portrays the general market as stocks with a higher price, such as Apple and Boeing, are over represented. Boeing is a relevant example as its current decline does not only reflect troubles related to the coronavirus outbreak, but also its ongoing crisis that was triggered by two fatal crashes of its 737 Max jet within a span of five months early last year. However, it is now the most significant contributor to the Dow’s drop since its peak on Feb. 12.

Percentage Drop by Industry Sectors, Best to Worst Performing

As shown in the chart above, certain stocks, such as Walmart, have been fairly resilient, with consumer staples as a group faring better than the rest overall. On average, stocks in four other sectors, health care, communications services, information technology and consumer discretionary are performing better than the overall drop of 28% in the Dow.

Consumer Staples

-7.7%

These consumer products are those that remain in family budgets regardless of financial problems in the larger economy, and are expectedly doing relatively better than the rest of the index. Walmart’s stock is seen as a “place to hide” amid the looming threat of a recession, while grocery sales overall are surging as consumers stock up and get ready to wait out the pandemic.

Health Care

-13.6%

Shares of pharmaceutical and biotechnology drug developers have done well amid the widespread panic, as several companies unveiled plans to combat Covid-19. At the same time, investors soured on the nation’s hospitals, which already saddled with debt, may feel an increased pressure as elective surgeries are delayed. Also, if the economy slides into a recession, it might mean the hospitals would get more patients that are covered by Medicare and Medicaid, which are less profitable, as well as see an increase in unpaid bills.

Communication Services

-20.4%

While the Dow includes just two companies from this group—Walt Disney and Verizon—overall, the sector’s stocks have done better than the broader market given a mixed exposure to the virus spread. The crisis has led to a drastic drop in ticket sales at movie theaters, yet, another part of the sector—like wireless service provider Verizon—remains largely insulated from any coronavirus impact, though equipment sales could see some declines due to supply constraints and store closings.

Information Technology

-25.5%

Technology companies—be it IBM, Apple or Microsoft—are being seen as reasonably defensive as patient investors look ahead to key tailwinds in 5G technologies, cloud computing products and artificial intelligence, even though strained global supply chains may have put a dent in near-term optimism.

Consumer Discretionary

-30.8%

Discretionary spends, such as buying new shoes, clothes, furnitures or cars, or even eating out, are expected to go down, reflected in the sharp decline seen in the stocks of Nike and McDonald’s. Restaurant stocks have continued to slide, as more companies shifted to takeout only, either by choice or state/city mandate, while cruise-line operators’ stocks are in a freefall.

Financials

-32.4%

Financial companies have been among the hardest hit as the virus threatened to tip the economy into a recession, with the KBW index of top U.S. banks falling nearly 40% since mid-February when the broader virus-fueled selloff began. With the Federal Reserve slashing its benchmark rate to near zero over the weekend, banks’ profits are expected to feel the squeeze, along with rising concern that borrowers may not be able to pay back loans in a faltering economy.

Industrials

-37.6%

With the virus outbreak forcing social distancing, and keeping people from buying cars or taking flights, the impact is rippling through the manufacturing industry and its supply chain. Factories and plants across the globe are being forced to shut down. Boeing, which was already struggling to sort out its troubles related to the 737 Max aircraft that was grounded last year after two fatal crashes, is now facing a double whammy as the airline industry sees an unprecedented drop in demand. That may, in turn, force airlines to defer their aircraft orders, or even cancel some if the situation does not improve in a few more months. The overall investor nervousness is also reflected in the shares of Caterpillar and United Technologies, two stocks that can be seen as bellwethers of the global industrial economy.

Energy

-38.4%

Energy stocks are taking a beating as the sector faces demand headwinds from coronavirus, while the ongoing price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia isn't helping anyone's cause. Energy is the worst-performing group in the S&P 500 this year, down 54%. Meanwhile, U.S. shale drillers are responding by slashing their capital budgets and dividends in a bid to weather the downturn.

Materials

-46.1%

The S&P 500 Materials index has lost about 28% since the rout started on Feb. 21. The worst hit sectors were chemical, fertilizer and industrial metals, all of which depend on the global economy for the demand of their products. The pullback led to fertilizer maker Mosaic Co. and plastic producer LyondellBasell Industries N.V. to lose about 50% of their stock value since the sell-off began. Meanwhile, gold miner Newmont Corp. was the least affected stock within the materials, as gold prices held up relatively well amid global panic selling.