If a pro-independence majority of MSPs is returned in May, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is likely to call for talks with the UK Government on a second independence referendum.
If, as seems likely, Boris Johnson rebuffs her demand, the next Holyrood term could be marked by a constitutional standoff.
However, the Scottish Parliament will be about more than a dispute on independence, and the Government will bring forward an agenda for post-covid recovery.
Manifestos will be rolled out over the next week and there are a number of policies that seem to command majority support across the political aisle.
National Care Service
The pandemic has shone an unforgiving light on how the (largely) privately-operated adult social care service works, and there is a consensus the status quo is broken.
A blueprint for change is the Feeley review, commissioned by the SNP Government.
His team backed the creation of a National Care Service with the aim of introducing national standards and terms and conditions, as well as providing greater oversight and accountability.
Labour, which was the first mainstream party to back a NCS, will likely push for the profit motive to be reduced in the sector, but it seems certain a majority of MSPS will back some form of NCS.
Scottish Child Payment
The SCP, which is the Sturgeon Government’s flagship anti-poverty policy, gives £40 every four weeks to low income families.
Given the public commitments of the major parties, it is inevitable that the value of the SCP will rise over the next term.
The SNP, Labour, Lib Dems, Greens and the Scottish Tories support doubling the payment.
It is highly likely that increasing the SCP to £20 a week will be a staging post to further rises.
Not Proven
Rape Crisis Scotland have for some time called for the not proven verdict in trials to be scrapped.
Critics believe the so-called “bastard verdict” is confusing and jurors should be given the option of guilty or not guilty.
The Scottish Tories and the Greens, who on most issues vehemently disagree, back abolition.
Although the SNP have not said unequivocally that they support abolition, Nicola Sturgeon’s recent statement was telling:
She said: “I do think it is time to look at the not proven verdict. The conviction rate for rape and sexual assault is shamefully low.”
If the SNP is re-elected, Ministers will launch a consultation. Abolition seems likely.
Free school meals
Sturgeon has promised to introduce free school meals for all primary pupils, with free breakfast and lunch for all classes, all year round.
The Greens are also supportive, while Labour is backing summer meal clubs for all Scotland’s school pupils.
One of the first things Douglas Ross did as the Scottish Tory leader was back free school lunches and breakfasts for primary school pupils.
The direction of travel is clear: existing policy will be extended.
ScotRail in public ownership
Labour have consistently called for ScotRail train services, currently operated by Abellio, to be brought into public ownership.
Given that SNP Ministers recently confirmed that these services will in the future be provided by an arm’s length company owned and controlled by the Scottish Government, a cross-party consensus on change exists.
With the Greens also on board, a long-standing aim of the Left is about to be realised.
