Election management bodies (EMBs) have always had to cope with natural hazards, but the threat posed by such phenomena has become more apparent in recent years. The number of natural disasters, including floods and cyclones, has tripled in the last four decades (IEP). This dramatic development is consistent with the predictions of climate scientists, and it is thus highly likely that elections will more frequently be affected by natural hazards in future years.
Analysis
From January 2019 to January 2024, at least 17 countries have been affected by natural disasters (such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, and wildfires) during subnational or national election periods. Countries include Australia, Belize, Canada, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Malawi, Malaysia, Mozambique, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Somalia, South Africa, Turkey, USA and Vanuatu.
Because elections are a key element of political system, electoral crises may disrupt the functioning of democracies. Though most election activities are not seriously impaired by such events, electoral administrators should protect elections from this threat.
The aim of the report, Impact of Natural Hazards on Elections (which will be updated on a regular basis), is to provide an overview and share various strategies that can be used to protect elections from adverse effects. The report considers natural hazards that are likely to increase with climate change, such as floods and wildfires, as well as non-climate change specific disasters such as earthquakes.
Through our report including analysis, publications and podcasts, we will keep you informed and welcome your participation in our dialogue.
This report was first published on 1 September 2022 and is updated on a regular basis. Please contact us at elections@idea.int for any further information.
International IDEA’s analyses and publications on natural hazards and electoral processes
Articles
- Managing elections after earthquakes – Challenges for Türkiye (11 May 2023)
- Quake aftermath poses questions on timing and conditions for Turkey elections (LSE, 17 February 2023)
- How hurricanes threaten U.S. elections and why more flexible voting is needed (3 November 2022)
- Wildfires, hurricanes, floods and earthquakes: How elections are impacted by natural hazards (1 September 2022)
- Parliament of Australia Joint Standing Committee on electoral matters: Inquiry on the future conduct of elections operating during times of emergency situations, submission of International IDEA (13 November 2020)
Podcast
- Peer-to-Peer: How natural disasters affected the 2010 elections in Haiti (10 January 2023)
- Peer-to-Peer: The impact of cyclones on Mozambique elections (22 December 2022)
- Peer-to-Peer: The Impact of wildfires on US elections (22 November 2022, recorded on 16 November 2022)
- Peer-to-Peer Trailer: The impact of natural disasters on elections (7 November 2022)
Case Studies
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THE IMPACT OF NATURAL HAZARDS ON HAITI’S 2010 PRESIDENTIAL AND LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONSCase Study, 1 September 2022Voting in the first round of Haiti’s 2010 presidential and legislative elections took place on 28 November 2010, 10 months after the country had been hit by a Richter Scale-7 earthquake, 23 days after the passage of Hurricane Tomas and in the midst of a rapidly spiralling cholera epidemic.
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CYCLONES AND THEIR EFFECTS ON THE 2019 ELECTIONS IN MOZAMBIQUECase Study, 1 September 2022The 2019 presidential, legislative and provincial elections in Mozambique were held in the midst of disasters caused by Cyclones Idai and Kenneth, as a result of which schools, power grids and roads were destroyed and people were forced to move to safer locations.
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WILDFIRE AND ELECTIONS IN CALIFORNIACase Study, 1 September 2022This case study examines the Californian wildfires occurring from September 2015 to November 2018 to assess their effect on two electoral cycles in the state (2016 and 2018), and to study how electoral practitioners cope with these challenges in a developed democratic setting.
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TAMING THE TWIN HAZARDS: INDONESIA´S 2020 DIRECT LOCAL ELECTIONSCase Study, 30 November 2022This study explores how flooding (originating from sea level rise) and Covid-19 interact and how the election management bodies (alongside others) dealt with these hazards simultaneously during the 2020 direct local elections, with a focus on two contrasting districts: Semarang City and Demak.
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MANAGING ELECTIONS DURING FLOODS: THE CASE OF VICTORIA, AUSTRALIA
Case Study, 17 July 2023
This case study examines how floods had an impact on the 2022 state election in Victoria, Australia. The case describes the close links between the Victoria Election Commission and the Victoria State Emergency Service as well as the risk management (and resilience-building) tools used to address the challenges. |
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NATURAL HAZARDS AND ELECTIONS IN INDIA: LESSONS IN ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION Case Study, February 2024 This case study first provides some background on the institutional and legal context of elections in India. The paper then explores adaptive measures adopted by the Electoral Commission of India (ECI) to safeguard the electoral process from natural hazards, with examples from state assembly elections in Himachal Pradesh, Bihar and Odisha between 2019 and 2022. |
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THE IMPACT OF THE 2023 EARTHQUAKES ON TÜRKIYE'S PRESIDENTIAL AND PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS Case Study, March 2024 This case study examines the dynamics of holding these contests in the aftermath. It provides information on the legal and institutional background of elections in Türkiye and discusses the practical matters of organizing elections in the post-earthquake context and results, with tentative lessons learned. |
Working Findings and Recommendations
The working findings from analysis and publications on the topic of natural hazards and elections provide scope for preliminary recommendations relevant to the work of electoral management bodies, lawmakers, civil contingency/disaster agencies, political parties, civil society organizations, academia and international electoral assistance providers. These highlight the need for:
- the legal framework of elections to account for emergency situations with an emphasis on natural disasters (flooding, sea-level rise, hurricanes, wildfires, earthquakes, etc.) and timing of elections;
- flexibility in the legal framework of elections to allow for a variety of alternative arrangements to ensure effectiveness in the event of a declared emergency. Alternative arrangements can include the extension of special voting arrangements which can increase voters’ access to polls, especially in places that are vulnerable to the effects of disasters and severe weather events;
- EMBs and other state agencies can consider special registration arrangements for internally displaced voters. This may include temporary address changes to facilitate voting.
- EMBs and other state agencies involved in elections (such as postal services, and education facilities used as polling stations) to be considered as part of a state’s critical infrastructure;
- EMBs to adopt risk management frameworks and crisis management procedures and resilience-building measures to reduce election disruption caused by natural disasters;
- EMBs to strengthen their inter-agency cooperation with national and sub-national state agencies involved in elections and disaster preparedness, prevention, and mitigation;
- EMBs to have a strategic communication plan and messaging so that voters understand any procedural or location changes associated with the election as a result of the natural disaster.
Advocacy
Final Declaration from Parliamentary Conference on "Elections in Times of Crisis" Challanges and Opportunities (10 May 2023)
Statement by International IDEA at the Summit of the Future consultation on Emergency Platforms (17 March 2023)
Statement by International IDEA at the UN Informal Consultation on the Midterm Review of the Sendai Framework (27 February 2023)
Additional Resources
- Democracy and Climate change
- Global Overview of Covid-19 Impact on elections report
- Special Voting Arrangements
Contributors
The project is led by Erik Asplund (International IDEA), Sarah Birch (King's College, University of London), Jeff Fischer (Independent consultant) and Ferran Martinez i Coma (Griffith University)
Case study authors: Saket Ambarkhane (Independent consultant), Sarah Birch (King's College, University of London), and Ferran Martinez i Coma (Griffith University), Jeff Fischer (Independent consultant), David Towriss (International IDEA), Yogi Setya Permana (Royal Netherlands Institute of Southeast Asian and Caribbean Studies), Domingos M. Rosario (Eduardo Mondlane University), Emre Toros (Hacettepe University)
The Impact of Natural Hazards on Elections: A Global Overview (Dashboard): Erik Asplund (International IDEA) and Hyowon Park (International IDEA)
To cite this report: International IDEA, Asplund, E. (editor), The Impact of Natural Hazards on Elections, 1 September 2022 (and updated)
