Last week on November 2, the Ethiopian government and Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front signed a peace agreement in South Africa to cease hostilities, almost two years after the start of the devastating war on November 4 2020. But so far there is little evidence that all hostilities and attacks have stopped or that much needed humanitarian supplied is reaching the region. It is now increasingly acknowledged that the war in Tigray, with its accompanying catastrophic human rights and humanitarian crisis, is one of the world’s worst ongoing wars.
Over the past two years Tigray has been under siege with limited or no humanitarian supplies and hidden from the sight of the world due to the ongoing communication shutdowns. The Tigray war has also largely been ignored as international attention has been fixed on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and because African wars often ‘remain out of sight and out of mind’.
Recent reports indicate that up to 600,000 civilians are estimated to have died in the war so far in horrific massacres, indiscriminate bombings of civilian targets, mass starvation and from lack of access to medical assistance. The war also includes an ethnic cleansing campaign across the whole of Western Tigray, forcing 1.2 million Tigrayans to flee their homes. The World Health Organization described the crisis in Tigray as the world’s worst manmade humanitarian crisis. Last month, the US Holocaust Museum alerted the world that there is heightened risk of genocide and mass atrocities in Tigray. However, this warning comes at a very late stage given there is already mounting evidence that points to the genocidal nature of the war.
Farmers facing famine
We argued earlier this year that farmers in Tigray in particular face famine for many reasons. Their farms were systematically looted and destroyed during the first invasion in 2020, which took place during the height of the harvest season. The looting and destruction was, among other forms of violence, followed by an anti-farm campaign and a siege that prevented farmers from accessing assistance to rebuild their farms, restock lost livestock, and get other essential inputs such as seeds and fertilizers for the last two farming seasons.
As in the autumn of 2020, the Ethiopian and Eritrean armies and allied ethnic Amhara militia have declared full-scale offensive on all the borders of the Tigray region this autumn during the current harvest season. Emerging reports indicate that the forces are systematically killing civilians and are involved in burning and looting of crops and other civilian properties in areas that came under their control.
These attacks are consistent with practices during the previous invasion of the region. Moreover, as the allied forces push through villages deep inside Tigray, ready-to-harvest fields are being tuned into battlefields. The implication is that farmers are unable to harvest even the limited crops they have been able to grow. According to the International Commission of Human Rights Experts on Ethiopia, there are reasonable grounds to believe that “Federal Government is committing the war crime of using starvation as a method of warfare”.
Shortage of basic medical supplies
Across the region, more than six million people remain cut off from the world and without access to all kinds of basic services such as banking, power, and communication.
Villages and towns continue to be carpet-bombed, with countless civilians killed and wounded. Healthcare services have been severely affected and there is barely any treatment for basic conditions like diabetes, HIV and tuberculosis. Even hospitals in Mekelle, the capital of Tigray, are out of basic supplies like antibiotics. The dismantling of the healthcare system, like the disruption of the food system, is another weapon of war.
Opportunities for greater UK response
Last week at an event in the UK’s House of Lords, Tigrayans in the UK and CNN reporter Nima Elbargir highlighted horrific acts of sexual violence and sexual slavery that women and girls have been subjected to across Tigray (including rape, gang rape and other forms of torture). As argued by Amnesty International, sexual violence risks inflicting lasting and physical psychological damage on the victims.
Despite overwhelming evidence of crimes that amount to genocide and crimes against humanity, the international response to this crisis has been pitiful. As argued by many at the meeting at the House of Lords, the UK response in particular has been chaotic and inadequate, especially when compared with Ireland and other EU neighbours who have been more openly critical.
At the meeting, Laurence Robertson MP, Chair of the APPG on Ethiopia and Djibouti, did not openly criticise Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy. He also stated that trade and business deals with Ethiopia have continued during the entire two-year period, which is disappointing given clear evidence of genocidal crimes conducted by the federal government. It is however welcome that leading advocates for Tigray such as Lord David Alton are promoting the Genocide Determination Bill, which would align UK procedures for recognition of genocide in line with other European countries. An upcoming global conference on preventing sexual violence in conflict hosted by the UK government also provides an opportunity to highlight the use the sexual violence in Tigray.
Recommendations for the international community
Despite the widespread acclamation of the recently signed agreement of ‘cessation of hostilities’ between the Ethiopian government and Tigrayans leaders, there are many doubts whether the truce will indeed succeed. It is concerning that many parts of Tigray continued to be bombed and subjected to attacks during and after the peace agreement. Eritrean forces in particularly continue to attack towns and villages in Tigray. Moreover, the role of Eritrea is not mentioned at all in the agreement even though the text includes a provision regarding ending ‘collusion with an external force hostile to either party.
Given the shaky nature of the peace deal, we outline the following recommendations, especially for the international community including donors such as the World Bank, IMF, multilateral institutions such as the UN and EU as well as national governments:
- The ceasefire needs to be respected by all warring sides. It should be monitored by international actors, not just by the African Union which has been compromised throughout the conflict
- Humanitarian, medical supplies and communication services must be immediately restored, and siege must be lifted.
- There must be an immediate cessation of hostile language, propaganda and hate speech and a commitment to peace from all sides
- The World Bank, IMF and other multilateral bodies need to ensure that all forms of fundings are not dispersed to Ethiopia unless there is peace and accountability to human rights violations and crimes committed.
- Issues of justice, accountability and reconciliation should not be overlooked. There cannot be permanent peace without the perpetrators of violence facing justice as well as reparation of damages and reconciliation efforts to prevent future cycles of war.
