Approximately 5.83 million people – almost half of South Sudan’s population (46 percent) – are experiencing high levels of acute food insecurity classified as IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between September to November 2023. An estimated 35,000 people are in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) in the Duk (3,000) and Nyirol (3,000) counties of Jonglei State; and the Rubkona County (15,000) of Unity State, while 14,000 South Sudanese returnees who fled the ongoing conflict in Sudan are also classified in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe). A further 1.64 million people are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). 

The most food insecure states between September and November 2023 with more than 50 percent of their populations facing IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) are Jonglei State (61 percent), Unity State (58 percent), Upper Nile State (56 percent) and Lakes State (53 percent).

In the harvest/post-harvest projection period of December 2023 to March 2024, the situation is projected to improve marginally as a result of reduced intensity of climatic shocks. An estimated 5.78 million people (46 percent of the population) are projected to face IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse), including 25,000 people likely to be in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) and 1.71 million people likely to be in Phase 4. In the lean season projection period of April to July 2024, the food security situation will deteriorate and an estimated 7.10 million people (56 percent of the population) will be highly food insecure (IPC Phase 3 or above). 79,000 people are likely to be in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) while an estimated 2.34 million people are likely to be in Phase 4.

The most food insecure populations are in locations that have been significantly affected by frequent climate-related shocks (flooding and dry spells), the economic crisis (currency depreciation and high food prices), conflict and insecurity – including the spillover effects of the conflict in Sudan – causing forced displacement, low agricultural production and a reduction in humanitarian assistance.

The population table includes additional columns labelled ‘PiNHA’ to indicate the total Population in Need of Humanitarian Food Security Assistance. The protocols for PiNHA analysis were applied in South Sudan analysis for areas where assistance is or is expected to be highly significant, i.e. at least 25% of households meeting at least 50% of their kcal needs through assistance. By using these criteria altogether 30 counties were identified for the PiNHA analysis for a mix of analysis periods (for some only current period, for others only projection period(s), and for the rest all three analysis periods). The purpose of the PiNHA analysis is to estimate the share of population that are in Phase 2 due to the assistance they are receiving/will receive, and who would likely be in Phase 3 or more severe in absence of assistance. This share is then added to the population in Phase 3+ to get the overall share of population in need of humanitarian food security assistance. Given that the share of the population in Phase 2 with assistance is relatively low (and most households with assistance are already classified in Phase 3+), the PiNHA estimates are not substantially higher than the standard IPC population estimates. Depending on the county, the share of households to be added to Phase 3+ ranges from 0 to 15%, by analysis period. The PiNHA results are displayed in the population tables in an additional column for the assessed counties. For other counties where humanitarian food security assistance is not highly significant, the standard population estimates should be treated as the PiNHA estimates. The PiNHA estimates are expected to assist agencies working on response to have a more complete set of data at their disposal when planning humanitarian food security assistance programmes.

Download Population Table PDF including PiNHA data.

Humanitarian Food Assistance: Humanitarian food assistance must be scaled up immediately to save lives and prevent a total collapse of livelihoods in locations where populations were classified in IPC Phase 5 (Catastrophe) and IPC Phase 4 (Emergency) acute food insecurity.

Livelihood support: Provide livelihood support such as seeds and tools (farm inputs) to support production and return it back to surplus levels, as well as support farmers to adapt to the climate-induced environmental changes by training them on climate-smart agricultural practices and distributing flood/drought resistant crop varieties.

End violence and conflict: Continue implementing the peace agreement and addressing the root causes of insecurity and conflict in the affected locations across the country.