The acute food insecurity and malnutrition situation in Yemen has deteriorated further in 2022, with 17.4 million people (IPC Phase 3 and above) in need of assistance as of now, increasing to 19 million starting June to the end of the year. Of greatest concern is the 31,000 people facing extreme hunger levels (IPC Phase 5 Catastrophe) now, rising to 161,000 by June. In addition, approximately 2.2 million children under the age of five, including 538,000 severely malnourished, and about 1.3 million pregnant and lactating women are projected to suffer from acute malnutrition over the course of 2022. The severity increases dramatically in the projection period for both food insecurity and acute malnutrition, with 86 districts moving to higher IPC Phases, 82 of which move from Phase 3 to Phase 4.
Conflict and economic crisis remain the main drivers of acute food insecurity and malnutrition in Yemen, further exacerbated by the instability of humanitarian assistance. The outlook for 2022 indicates that both features will continue, with a likelihood of further escalation of fighting in critical hotspots, thereby leading to further displacement. In addition, as a result of the protracted conflict, access to public services has been brought to a near-halt resulting in delays/cuts of salaries, poor access to health services, inadequate access to water, and other services such as education, energy, etc. remain severely compromised.The Famine Review Committee (FRC) was activated with a request to assess the plausibility of the IPC Yemen Technical Working Group (TWG) Acute Food Insecurity (AFI) and Acute Malnutrition (AMN) classifications in five areas (Abs, Haradh and Midi in Hajjah Governorate and Al Hali and Al Hawak in Al Hudaydah governorate). The FRC found that the classifications and population estimates, conducted with the information available at the time of the analysis, are broadly plausible for the current and projected classifications in Abs, Al Hali and Al Hawak. However, the FRC concluded that there is not a body of evidence supporting a famine classification. for Midi and Haradh. The FRC considers the extrapolation done from Abs data, for both AFI and AMN analyses, are not plausible; and recommends the IPC TWG does not classify these areas but reassess the presence of populations residing in these districts as well as their conditions.
It is paramount to note that in the immediate aftermath of the FRC activation, the Ukraine crisis unfolded generating the need to review the scenario definition for the projected period.
The risks associated with the crisis in Ukraine point to the need to re-assess the assumptions developed by the IPC analysis teams. Notably the prices and supply of wheat and fuel, as well as a change in the geopolitics surrounding the Yemen conflict and possible shifts in humanitarian programming in the coming months.
The FRC has identified a number of risk factors that may be subject to rapid change during 2022. These factors and/or the potential degree of change relate to recent developments and could not have been foreseen at the time of the Yemen IPC analyses. Nevertheless, the FRC believes these factors may affect the TWG classifications over the time periods they cover.
The FRC urges the closest possible monitoring not only of each of the risk factors individually, particularly their cumulative impact, during the current and projection periods. Without close monitoring and rapid response to any changes, it is feasible that the severity of the food security, nutrition, and health situation in Yemen could exceed the levels currently specified in the current and projection time periods.
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