The latest projection update of Sudan reveals that intense conflict and organized violence, coupled with the continued economic decline, have driven approximately 17.7 million people across Sudan (37 percent of the analysed population) into high levels of acute food insecurity, classified in IPC Phase 3 or above (Crisis or worse) between October 2023 and February 2024. Of those, about 4.9 million (10 percent of the population analysed) are in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), and almost 12.8 million people (27 percent of the population analysed) are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis).

An update of the October 2023 – February 2024 projection period was carried out in October 2023 to allow for the revision of classifications of several states as the monitoring of key drivers and assumptions of the last projection analysis (July 2023) showed several changes in the assumptions used for the projected period.

Conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and other organized violence continues to be the main drivers of life-threatening food insecurity in Sudan. The most acutely food insecure populations are in states affected by high levels of organized violence, including Greater Darfur, Greater Kordofan and Khartoum – especially the tri-city area of Khartoum, Bahri and Omdurman. Across all areas heavily affected by conflict and organized violence, civilians experiencing restrictions on movement, including due to sieges, are at heightened risk of high levels of food insecurity.

Access to people in need is one of the greatest challenges facing humanitarian partners and stakeholders. The conflict dynamics have become increasingly complex, making it challenging for humanitarian partners to deliver lifesaving and life-sustaining assistance to people trapped in conflict hotspots, including Khartoum, the Kordofans, and the Darfur states.

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