The dual Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson region in the south and Kharkiv in the east is transforming the way Americans and Europeans view military support to Ukraine. In the early weeks of the war, some experts feared that military aid would be useless as the Ukrainians were doomed to defeat. Worse, delivering weapons meant taking the risk that they would quickly fall into the hands of traffickers or criminals after Ukraine's defeat. Above all, many Western decision-makers feared that the delivery of heavy weapons would only prolong the war and its suffering, without changing the outcome.
Today, all these calculations are reversed. Not only is it clear that Western aid is militarily beneficial because Ukrainian forces know perfectly well how to use it, but the speed of the offensive on Kharkiv now suggests that the best way to put an end to this war is to accelerate Ukraine's victory. In this context, where does France stand? While the delivery of 18 CAESAR howitzers was highly publicized and appreciated in Ukraine, statistics from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy put France at the bottom of the rankings for aid granted. France has given €233 million, the United States €25 billion, the United Kingdom €4 billion, Poland €1.8 billion and Germany €1.2 billion. Even small countries such as Estonia and Latvia have given more than France.
French reluctance is understandable. Of course, Ukraine needs weapons, but French stocks are limited and the current context encourages the French military to seek to reinforce and not deplete them. However, this reluctance should be overcome for military as well as diplomatic and industrial reasons.
Maintaining the myth
From a military perspective, heavy weapons like the CAESAR howitzer or the Leclerc tank make a difference in high-intensity combat. While they can play a crucial role in Ukrainian hands, they would not be missed by French forces engaged in the Sahel, where the emphasis is more on mobility, with the use of helicopters for example. Better still: As long as the Russians are kept in check in Ukraine, there is less risk of having to confront them directly closer to our borders, which gives us time to reconstitute our stocks. Handing over our weapons to the Ukrainians is therefore the best use we can make of them, including for our own security.
From a diplomatic point of view, the relative weakness of French military support tends to weaken our country's credibility with our partners, particularly in Eastern Europe. It contributes to maintaining the myth that French leaders are in fact ambiguous or even complacent with regard to Russia. This perception is problematic because France has great ambitions in terms of European defense. In particular, France supports the European Commission's efforts to subsidize joint procurement of military equipment between several member states, with a view to promoting convergence of European defense industries and armies. Many Central and Eastern European states are interested in strengthening European defense, but wonder whether France is a reliable partner against Russia. Would it not be more careful to cooperate above all with the United States and the United Kingdom, who are much more strongly committed to Ukraine? Under these conditions, a significant increase in French arms deliveries would send a strong political message and could give new impetus to the European projects led by France.
You have 36.69% of this article left to read. The rest is for subscribers only.