In the 1950s, at the beginning of the Cold War, Mao's China obeyed its Soviet big brother. On the side of the "reds", the USSR had oversight over China. Stalin had the upper hand. Today, the situation is reversed. After a year of the war it launched against Ukraine, Russia finds itself dependent on China. Within the "unlimited friendship" relationship that Moscow and Beijing claim to have established, Xi Jinping is the dominant party – more so every day.
Moscow's aggression against Kyiv put Beijing in a complicated position. Vladimir Putin launched his "special operation" barely three weeks after having sealed the "friendship" pact between their two countries in Beijing on February 4, 2022. The goal was to take control of a Ukraine that had succumbed far too much to Western influence, in the eyes the Kremlin's master.
Surprised and poorly informed beforehand – or not informed at all – China lowered its efforts to a minimum. It is supporting Russia politically and has refrained from condemning it during a vote at the United Nations. It has also declared its opposition to American and European sanctions. This is not just a matter of "friendship" between states. Putin and Xi seem to have a very good personal relationship. More importantly, the two presidents are united in the same strategic ambition: ending the alleged dominance of the United States or the West in general over the international system.
China, a friend that knows how to count
But China is in trouble. It wants to be one of the most meticulous guardians of the principle of territorial integrity. Beijing is getting off lightly by declaring that the Russian offensive is the result of unbearable "Western" provocations – a copy and paste of the Moscow speech. The Chinese and Russian militaries will soon engage in joint maneuvers in the Pacific. Xi has met Putin several times over the past year. He has hinted that he does not like this war. However, he has never contacted Volodymyr Zelensky, nor has China attempted any mediation.
Within the China-Russia couple, demography and the economy establish Chinese superiority. The two countries share a border of 4,200 kilometers. Standing at some $18 trillion (more than €16 trillion), China (1.4 billion inhabitants) has a gross domestic product ten times greater than Russia's (142 million inhabitants). Since February 24, 2022, sanctions and the European Union's boycott of Russian oil and gas have been exacerbating Russia's dependence on China. Russian political analyst Alexander Gabuev of the Carnegie Foundation detailed the situation in an article in Foreign Affairs magazine (August 2022) entitled "China's new vassal."
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