Millions displaced. Brutal attacks on civilians. A soaring death toll. Deliberate attacks on infrastructure. And little hope of a negotiated exit. Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region is enduring probably the most brutal and deadly war being waged in the world today. Tens of thousands of combat fatalities have reportedly followed the failure of a ceasefire in August. Yet the world is paying little heed.
Assessing the true toll is impossible given that most communications have been cut off. Researchers at the University of Ghent have estimated that between 380,000 and 600,000 civilian lives alone have been lost, with 30,000-90,000 killed in direct attacks, but most dying for lack of food or healthcare. In a region already beset by hunger, but which had made some significant strides, food has become a weapon of war. Nearly half the population is in severe need of food aid. There is clear evidence of war crimes by all parties, including widespread sexual violence, although civilian casualties are believed to be overwhelmingly Tigrayan.
The conflict broke out in November 2020, following a political dispute in which the federal and regional Tigray governments declared each other illegitimate. The Ethiopian prime minister and Nobel peace prize winner Abiy Ahmed said he was launching a strike on the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) because it had attacked an army base. Eritrea joined his cause. Many fear that the TPLF could regain the political dominance it enjoyed for decades, while others accuse the prime minister of a power grab. The conflict has become messier, more fractured and more entrenched as it has gone on, with the neighbouring Amhara region also drawn in.
While some food aid finally arrived in Tigray this spring, Addis Ababa and its allies continued to block commercial traffic to the region, fuel shipments remained extremely limited, and electricity, telecommunications and banking services remained cut off. Now even the humanitarian operations are once again suspended.
The UN secretary general, António Guterres, has warned that the situation is spiralling out of control and there is no military solution. Yet Mr Abiy and his allies still appear bent on one. Their current offensive is infantry-heavy, with poorly trained and equipped troops flung towards enemy lines, in addition to airstrikes. Eritrea has intensified mobilisation, reportedly detaining parents whose adult children try to avoid conscription. Despite significant setbacks, many Tigrayans have come to see this as a fight for their very survival; giving up may look as dangerous as persisting. The International Crisis Group has warned of a serious risk of accelerating atrocities, especially given the surge in hate speech against Tigrayans. There are also concerns that the war could spill over given the poor relations and long-running border dispute between the federal government and Sudan.
The African Union, the obvious forum for pursuing a solution, has failed to make progress. While the US has invested effort in diplomacy, it has not always been consistent in following through. The European Union has seemed largely uninterested, especially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Though there is a good case for UN action, including an arms embargo, the path is strewn with obstacles. Donors must make clear to Addis Ababa that anything more than humanitarian assistance cannot resume until it lifts the blockade and shows it is serious about pursuing peace. Tigray’s leaders must similarly demonstrate commitment to African Union talks scheduled for Monday. The collapse of the truce is deeply alarming. But another halt to the disastrous conflict is possible. It will not happen without significant and sustained external pressure: that must be applied, and it must be done now.